美联储独立性迎“生死考验”！美国最高法院就库克案举行听证会 鲍威尔将出席

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is critical for the independence of the Federal Reserve and its ability to set interest rates free from political interference [1][7][9]. Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing adds weight to the proceedings, especially after the Justice Department issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve [1][4]. - The case challenges the "for cause" removal protection outlined in the Federal Reserve Act, which states that governors can only be removed for specific reasons [7][8]. - If the court rules in favor of the White House's interpretation of removal powers, it could open the door for the dismissal of Powell and undermine the data-driven monetary policy framework [8][9]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Investigations - The Trump administration has initiated a criminal investigation into Powell, focusing on the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters and potential misleading statements to Congress [4][10]. - This unprecedented legal action raises concerns about the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, suggesting that monetary policy may become subject to political demands rather than economic indicators [5][10]. - Analysts suggest that if the investigation continues and Senate Republicans block new nominations, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may opt to retain Powell in a role to counteract aggressive rate cuts favored by Trump [6][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - UBS warns that a ruling allowing the White House to bypass the Federal Reserve Act could lead to a structural re-evaluation of pricing in the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and equities, with significant market volatility expected in 2026 [8]. - The Supreme Court's decision will determine whether the "firewall" protecting the Federal Reserve's unique status remains intact, which is crucial for maintaining its independence from executive power [8][9].