智通财经网·2026-01-19 23:57Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in the securities sector does not indicate the end of the market trend, as the sector is currently at a strong fundamental support level, suggesting potential for upward movement in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent market adjustment is viewed as a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal, which will lead to a gradual transition towards a slow bull market, with the securities sector remaining active in this process [2]. - The activity level in the stock market serves as a synchronous indicator for the valuation and performance of the securities industry, determining the lower limit of the sector's valuation [2]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - As of January 16, 2026, the total market capitalization of the sample securities firms is approximately 39,901 billion, with a PB(LF) of only 1.34 times, which is below the estimated valuation lower limit [3]. - If the average daily trading volume in the stock market stabilizes and increases, the sector is expected to initiate a rebound, aligning valuations closer to the estimated range of 1.36 to 1.50 times PB [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The potential for unexpected financial policy changes is identified as a key variable for unlocking the upper limit of valuations, which could lead to higher valuation premiums based on policy-driven growth logic [3]. - If such unexpected financial policies emerge, the sector's valuation elasticity may rival previous market cycles, potentially exceeding the current valuation range [3].