机构：预计快递行业“反内卷”政策将持续

Core Insights - The China Express Development Index is projected to reach 466.8 by December 2025, indicating a stable and safe industry operation with continuous improvement in service quality and expansion of the foundational network [1] - The "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery industry is expected to exceed expectations, driven by regulatory measures, cost management, and a shift towards value competition as volume growth slows [1][2] Group 1: Industry Performance - The development scale index, service quality index, development capability index, and development trend index are reported at 631.6, 650.8, 253.1, and 61.7 respectively [1] - The express delivery industry achieved record highs in business volume and revenue for the year [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - Regulatory efforts are expected to continue addressing "involution" competition, promoting a more rational pricing environment [1] - The introduction of new social security regulations is anticipated to streamline cost and price transmission pathways for companies [1] - The trend towards smaller packages is expected to weaken, while stricter compliance from e-commerce platforms may lead to a reduction in inflated delivery volumes [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a positive impact, with the industry likely to maintain healthy competition and improve profitability [2] - The successful implementation of "anti-involution" in 2021 has led to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for the e-commerce express sector [2]