世界银行报告指出：全球经济韧性仍超预期

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank's January 2026 Global Economic Outlook report indicates that despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties, global economic resilience exceeds expectations. The global growth rate is projected to slightly decline to 2.6% in 2026, with a rebound to 2.7% in 2027, highlighting a weakening growth momentum [1][2]. Economic Recovery Disparities - In 2025, global per capita GDP is expected to be approximately 10% higher than in 2019. However, the recovery is highly uneven, with nearly 90% of developed economies returning to pre-pandemic income levels, while over a quarter of emerging markets and developing economies, particularly low-income and conflict-affected countries, still lag behind [2][3]. Trade Dynamics - Global trade growth in 2025 is primarily driven by companies preemptively importing and exporting to avoid tariff risks. However, starting in 2026, trade growth is expected to slow significantly due to inventory reductions and the impact of tariffs, with trade policy uncertainties dampening business investment and confidence [2][3]. Inflation Trends - Global inflation is generally on a downward trend, with most countries' inflation rates nearing central bank targets. The impact of U.S. tariffs on goods inflation has been partially offset by inventory accumulation and supply chain adjustments, although financial market volatility remains a significant risk [3][4]. Employment Challenges - Employment remains a core challenge for developing economies, which struggle to create sufficient job opportunities for a rapidly growing young population. By 2035, approximately 1.2 billion young people are expected to enter the labor market, while many countries still have per capita incomes below pre-pandemic levels [4][5]. Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for a coordinated global response to address trade, debt, climate, and financial risks. Key recommendations include maintaining and improving the multilateral trade system, supporting financing and debt relief for developing economies, enhancing global cooperation on climate risks, and ensuring financial stability through coordinated macroeconomic policies [5].