Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-20 01:20Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [4][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7%, while fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 3.8%, particularly in real estate development, which is expected to drop by 17.2% [4][14] - By the end of 2025, China's population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people due to 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths [4][14] Steel Production and Trade - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while pig iron production is projected at 83.604 million tons, down 3.0% [4][14] - Steel production is anticipated to reach 144.612 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4][14] - China's foreign trade in 2025 is expected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, a growth of 3.8%, with steel exports hitting a record high of 11.9019 million tons, up 7.5% [4][14] Market Activity - On January 19, the national main port iron ore transactions reached 1.194 million tons, an increase of 7.3% month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 10.4% [5][15] - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points from the previous week, while the profitability rate of steel mills increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83% [5][15] - The total supply of five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 0.6% to 12.4701 million tons [5][15] Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 438.07 thousand tons, while demand showed a recovery of 15.28 thousand tons [6][16] - Hot-rolled steel production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 5.8 million tons to 362.33 thousand tons, indicating a cautious market outlook among traders [6][16] Price Strategy - The short-term price range for rebar (contract 2605) is expected to be between 3100-3200 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel (contract 2605) is projected to range from 3250-3350 yuan/ton [7][17]