地缘与贸易扰动再起，避险资金回流，黄金维持高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe on market sentiment, leading to a significant influx of capital into precious metals like gold and silver, with gold prices reaching $4,698 before a slight retreat [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices closed at $4,676.7 per ounce, reflecting a 1.77% increase in COMEX gold futures [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.58%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 2.29%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) saw a 0.38% rise [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Economists warn that if President Trump swiftly implements new tariff threats, the UK could face a risk of economic recession, with potential losses estimated at £21.6 billion if tariffs are raised to 25% starting in June [1] - According to Capital Economics, the UK's GDP could decline by 0.3% to 0.75% due to these tariff impacts [1] - The current quarterly growth rate of the UK economy is only 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating vulnerability to economic shocks that could trigger a recession [1] Group 3: Tariff Policy and Future Outlook - The article notes the frequent and inconsistent nature of tariff policies during Trump's presidency, affecting trade relations with geopolitically sensitive regions, particularly in mineral and metal sectors [1] - Analysts expect that the tensions and competitive dynamics observed in 2025 will persist into 2026, warranting ongoing attention [1] - Wall Street has been raising gold price targets, with Bank of America and JPMorgan forecasting that gold prices could eventually reach $6,000 [1]