US tariffs are paid almost entirely by Americans, a German study finds

Core Insights - A study from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy reveals that 96% of the burden from US tariffs is borne by American consumers and importers, contradicting claims that foreign exporters would absorb these costs [1][2][4] Tariff Impact on Revenue - The US government raised $200 billion in customs revenue in 2025, which is described as a tax primarily paid by Americans [2] - The aggressive tariff policy initiated by the Trump administration has imposed additional duties on various trade partners, including China, India, and the European Union [2] Research Methodology - The Kiel Institute's study analyzed over 25 million shipment records valued at nearly $4 trillion from January 2024 to November 2025, finding a "near-complete pass-through" of tariffs to US import prices [3] Price and Availability Effects - The study indicates that US import prices increase almost one-for-one with tariffs, leading to a contraction in trade volumes [3] - American importers, wholesalers, manufacturers, and retailers face the initial tariff costs, which are then passed on to consumers through higher prices and limited availability of goods [5] Broader Research Consensus - The findings align with other research from institutions like Harvard Business School and Yale's Budget Lab, which also concluded that American consumers are primarily responsible for tariff costs [4] Ongoing Tariff Policies - President Trump continues to advocate for tariffs, threatening additional duties on Denmark and other European nations unless they agree to specific deals [6] - The legality of many of Trump's tariffs, instituted under a national security law, is under review by the Supreme Court, with potential implications for future tariff policies [6]