新股前瞻|莫干山家居：人造板量价齐跌，定制家居能否扛起增长大旗？

Core Viewpoint - Mogan Mountain Home is facing challenges in growth momentum and profitability quality despite being a leading player in the green home furnishing industry, as it prepares for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a slight revenue increase from 3.394 billion RMB in 2023 to 3.456 billion RMB in 2024, with a projected revenue of 3.456 billion RMB for 2025, indicating a growth rate of only about 1.8% [2][4]. - Gross margin improved from 22.2% in 2023 to 25.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, suggesting better product mix or cost control [2][3]. - However, net profit margin remained stagnant at 9.4% in 2023 and 9.3% in 2024, with a slight increase to 11.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the pressure from operating expenses [3][4]. Business Transition - Mogan Mountain Home is shifting its focus from traditional engineered wood products, which accounted for 69.0% of revenue in 2023, to customized home furnishings, which increased its share from 18.9% to 25.6% by 2025 [6][8]. - The company is experiencing a decline in engineered wood sales, dropping from 22,515 thousand units in 2023 to 14,873 thousand units in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a clear downward trend [7][10]. Market Challenges - The company faces dual pressures of declining sales volume and pricing power in its traditional engineered wood business, with a projected 3.9% decline in sales for 2024 and a 9.0% decline in the first nine months of 2025 [10][11]. - Despite a 2.8% increase in average price to 101.1 RMB in 2024, the average price fell by 7.9% to 94.5 RMB in the first nine months of 2025, suggesting a price-cutting strategy to maintain sales volume [10][11]. Future Outlook - The company's growth prospects are heavily reliant on the success of its customized home furnishings segment, which has not yet fully compensated for the decline in engineered wood revenue, as total revenue decreased by 1.2% in the first nine months of 2025 [10][11]. - The transition to customized home furnishings is accompanied by rising sales and distribution expenses, increasing from 5.9% to 7.0% of revenue, which may erode profits in the short term [10][11].