不锈钢：盘面窄幅震荡为主 成本和供需博弈

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price fluctuations, with recent data indicating a decline in cold-rolled stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan [1] - Nickel ore prices are on the rise, particularly in the Philippines and Indonesia, with significant increases in benchmark prices [1][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase in January, driven by improved profit margins for steel mills [2] Supply - In December, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.2605 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 232,600 tons (6.7%) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [2] - January's stainless steel crude steel output is projected to be 3.4065 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.48% and a year-on-year increase of 19.05% [2] - The production of the 300 series is expected to rise to 1.7632 million tons in January, with a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 12.58% [2] Inventory - Social inventory is continuing to decrease, although the pace of reduction has slowed compared to the previous week [2] - As of January 16, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 450,700 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,700 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel futures inventory was 46,118 tons, down 911 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, influenced by nickel ore news and cautious purchasing behavior [3] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, creating space for further interest rate cuts [3] - Expectations of tightened nickel ore supply from Indonesia and rising prices in the Philippines are contributing to market sentiment [3] Price Trends - The market price for high-nickel pig iron has risen, with the negotiation range moving up to 1,020-1,030 yuan per nickel [3] - Retail prices for ferrochrome remain strong due to limited resource circulation and a slowdown in supply growth [3] - Overall, while cost support is strengthening, the combination of ample supply and weak demand is limiting upward price movement, with short-term expectations of price fluctuations in the range of 13,800-14,600 yuan [3]