苯乙烯：供需阶段性偏紧 高估值下反弹空间受限

Market Overview - On January 19, the styrene market in East China saw an overall increase, with limited spot supply and export transactions boosting market sentiment. However, downstream purchasing at high prices was weak, leading to a decline in trading atmosphere. Traders were reluctant to sell, and external funds were tight, while the styrene industry remained profitable with positive forward sales [1][4]. Profitability - As of January 19, the profit for non-integrated styrene units was approximately 712 RMB per ton [2]. Supply and Demand - Styrene supply: As of January 15, the weekly production was 355,400 tons (a decrease of 300 tons), with an operating rate of 70.86% (a decrease of 0.06%) [3]. - Styrene inventory: As of January 19, the total port inventory in Jiangsu was 93,500 tons, down by 7,100 tons from the previous period. The commodity inventory was 58,900 tons, down by 1,000 tons [3]. - Downstream operations: As of January 15, the operating rates were 54.05% for EPS (an increase of 7.33%), 57.4% for PS (a decrease of 1.5%), and 69.8% for ABS (unchanged) [3]. Market Outlook - The recent export of styrene to Europe and new transactions to India have led to limited port inventory, resulting in a short-term tightening of supply and demand. However, there is strong resistance from downstream buyers at high prices, leading to overall weak terminal orders. EPS cash flow has been compressed, while some factories are operating well for pre-holiday stock production. ABS is facing significant losses, although downstream appliance companies have maintained reasonable order levels in January. Despite the short-term tightening, there are expectations of inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, and the upward potential for styrene prices is limited. Although styrene profits have expanded significantly, the price difference between styrene and pure benzene has widened. The current driving force for styrene remains stronger than that for pure benzene, and a significant increase in supply or a larger reduction in downstream production would be needed to see a contraction in the price difference. The strategy suggests avoiding long positions in the short term and looking for short opportunities in EB03, while also monitoring high processing fees for potential contraction opportunities [4].