智通财经网·2026-01-20 02:07Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities highlights a significant shift in China's electricity consumption from secondary industries to tertiary industries and urban-rural residents, primarily driven by wind and solar energy contributions. The performance of thermal power companies is expected to diverge significantly in 2025, with northern companies showing better stock performance due to high growth in earnings. The improvement in free cash flow for thermal power companies suggests a potential shift towards a "public utility" model [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption Trends - The increase in electricity consumption is transitioning from secondary industries to tertiary industries and urban-rural residents, with projected contributions of 34.6%, 47.6%, and 50.2% from 2023 to 2025 respectively [1] - The growth in electricity generation is primarily attributed to wind and solar energy, with wind and solar expected to contribute 86.2% of the total increase from January to November 2025, compared to 35.8% and 44.7% in 2023 and 2024 respectively [1] - The long-term electricity proportion is decreasing, with adjustments made by two ministries reducing the 2026 long-term electricity ratio to 70% from the previous 80%, allowing for more flexible market adjustments [1] Group 2: Thermal Power Sector Insights - In 2025, stock performance among thermal power companies is expected to vary significantly, with northern companies like Jintou Energy and Jingneng Power seeing stock price increases of 60%-70% in the first half of the year [2] - The long-term electricity price for 2026 is approaching its lower limit, with limited future declines expected; an increase in coal power capacity prices could lead to a near 2 cents per kilowatt-hour increase in revenue [2] - The improvement in free cash flow for thermal power companies indicates a significant potential for increased dividend payouts, suggesting a shift towards a "public utility" model [2] Group 3: Hydropower Sector Developments - The abundant rainfall in the second half of 2025 in the Pearl and Yangtze River basins is expected to boost hydropower generation, with Changjiang Electric reporting a net profit of 34.2 billion yuan for 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase [3] - High reservoir levels at the end of 2025 are anticipated to support electricity generation during the dry season in the first half of 2026, with water power expected to maintain profit growth over multiple quarters [3] - The peak period for hydropower project commissioning is approaching, with several power stations in the Dadu River basin set to commence operations, and ongoing asset securitization processes are also noteworthy [3] Group 4: Green Energy and Nuclear Power Insights - The green energy sector has not yet fully transitioned from installation to revenue and profit, but the introduction of policy 136 is expected to enhance the stability of return on equity (ROE) in this sector [4] - The nuclear power sector is seeing continued approvals for new units, with a focus on market-driven electricity pricing [4] - The gas sector is recovering in terms of gross margins, with an emphasis on increasing sales volume [4] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Public Utilities - Recommended stocks in the thermal power sector include Huaneng International Power, Huadian International Power, Guodian Power, and others known for high dividends and effective market management [5] - In the hydropower sector, companies like Changjiang Electric and Guikang Electric are highlighted for their strong performance and asset injection potential [5] - The gas sector is represented by Jiufeng Energy, which is capitalizing on coal-to-gas initiatives [5] - High ROE and low price-to-book ratio green energy stocks include Longyuan Power and Fuyuan Co., while China General Nuclear Power is noted for its policy adjustments [5]