2025年四季度淘汰母猪：价格跟随肥猪震荡，抗跌属性成亮点

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is transitioning to an upward phase from the bottom of the pig cycle in Q4 2025, with the price of culling sows showing strong resilience due to multiple factors including fluctuations in fat pig prices, terminal demand support, and supply structure adjustments [3][11]. Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the average transaction price for high-quality culling sows was 8.97 yuan/kg, corresponding to an average discount of 75.06% compared to fat pigs, indicating a strong anti-decline characteristic in sow prices [3][11]. - The price of culling sows exhibited a "first drop then rise" pattern, closely linked to fat pig prices, which also followed a similar trajectory [4][12]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The support for culling sow prices in Q4 came from significant improvements in terminal demand, driven by seasonal factors such as lower temperatures boosting fresh meat consumption and increased demand for large pigs [6][14]. - The supply side has been managed rationally, with producers opting for precise culling strategies rather than mass culling, maintaining a stable core production capacity [6][14]. Market Balance - The core logic of the high-quality culling sow market in Q4 2025 is based on a balance between phase-specific demand support and rational supply adjustments, with the gradual reduction of breeding sow inventory reinforcing price stability [7][15]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that demand for stocking ahead of the 2026 Spring Festival will continue to support prices, while long-term trends indicate a potential upward shift in the culling sow market as low-efficiency production capacity is phased out [7][15].