国债期货：经济数据公布 债市震荡企稳

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.22%, the 10-year main contract down by 0.02%, the 5-year main contract down by 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract unchanged [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.35 basis points to 1.9675%, while the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.1 basis points to 1.8420%, and the 30-year government bond yield rose by 0.3 basis points to 2.3040% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 158.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [2] - On that day, 86.1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market showed stable funding supply and prices, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) fluctuating slightly above 1.3% [2] Economic Fundamentals - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for 2025 is projected to be 14,018.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [3] - In Q4 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 4.5%, matching the forecast, while Q3 growth was 4.8% [3] - Retail sales in December 2025 increased by 0.9% year-on-year, below the expected 1.5% [3] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 2.4% [3] - Real estate development investment in 2025 was 82,788 million yuan, down 17.2% from the previous year, with new housing sales area and sales value declining by 8.7% and 12.6%, respectively [3] Operational Recommendations - The funding conditions have marginally eased, but a contraction is expected due to the tax period [4] - The recently released December economic data indicates a divergence between strong production and weak demand [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently around 1.85%, which is considered a reasonable pricing [4] - Future bond market trends will likely depend on policy strength and supply-demand conditions in Q1, with the 10-year bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.83% and 1.88% [4]