退税取消，倒逼光伏锂电加速洗牌

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for photovoltaic and lithium battery products starting April 1, 2026, significantly increasing export costs and putting pressure on profits, with companies expected to rush to declare exports before the deadline [1] - China's photovoltaic industry holds 80%-90% of global capacity and has been the world's largest in production and installation for over a decade, but faces structural contradictions due to excessive capital inflow and a large number of small enterprises, leading to disordered capacity expansion [1] - The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy is seen as a targeted measure to reduce reliance on subsidies, encouraging technological innovation and shifting the industry from low-price competition to value competition [2] Group 2 - The policy is expected to benefit leading companies by promoting industry concentration and eliminating low-price competition, with companies that have strong technology and cost control likely to gain in the medium to long term [3] - Some companies are signaling a cautious approach, with Tianqi Materials planning to suspend production of a lithium hexafluorophosphate line and adjust investment projects, indicating a shift from large-scale expansion [3] - The introduction of the export tax rebate policy is anticipated to intensify the competition between upstream and downstream sectors, potentially driving up material prices, as most major materials have shown significant price increases since December [3]