华安基金：全球局势变数加大，金价再创历史新高

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with London spot gold closing at $4,599 per ounce (up 2.0% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 1,033 yuan per gram (up 3.0% week-on-week) [1][6] - Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to a potential influx of safe-haven funds into gold. Notably, the dispute over Greenland's ownership and tensions surrounding Iran are contributing factors [1][6] - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of goods imported from the U.S. in response to proposed U.S. tariffs on imports from several European countries [1][6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. December CPI was lower than expected at 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, which has increased market speculation for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][7] - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny, with ongoing investigations into Chairman Powell, while major central bank leaders and Wall Street figures have expressed support for him [2][7] - The outlook suggests that if a dovish chairman is appointed, the pace of interest rate cuts may accelerate, which could be favorable for gold [2][7] Group 3: Future Signals for Gold ETF - Key signals to watch for the upcoming week regarding the gold ETF include U.S. Q3 GDP and PCE data, as well as changes in geopolitical situations [3][8] Group 4: Comparison of Gold Prices - A comparison of gold priced in RMB and international gold prices is noted, with data sourced from Wind and Huaan Fund as of January 18, 2026 [4][10]