东方金诚：2026年1月LPR报价保持不变，二季度有望跟进政策利率下调

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, reflecting market expectations and stable monetary policy conditions [1] Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR quotes for January remained stable due to unchanged policy rates and stable medium to long-term market interest rates, indicating a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR spreads [1] - Since June 2025, the LPR has not changed, primarily driven by strong export performance and rapid development in high-tech manufacturing sectors, allowing the macro economy to withstand external pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in economic growth due to real estate market adjustments and weakened investment and consumption, employment remains stable and inflation is showing signs of recovery [2] - GDP growth is expected to rebound to approximately 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with monetary policy likely to remain stable in the short term [2] - There is potential for comprehensive policy rate cuts if economic pressures increase in Q2 2026, which could lead to a reduction in LPR and lower loan rates for businesses and households [2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Stability - Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations that regulatory measures may lead to significant reductions in the 5-year LPR, combined with fiscal subsidies to lower residential mortgage rates [3]