Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a high-level consolidation, with the price reported at 1.3872, showing little change from the previous day's close of 1.3868, indicating a balance between the support from oil prices for CAD and data support for USD [1] - The recent rebound in oil prices, driven by geopolitical risks in the Baltic region and increased attacks on Russian oil tankers by Ukraine, has provided strong support for the CAD, which is closely tied to international oil price fluctuations [1] - The Canadian economy, as a major oil exporter, benefits from rising oil prices, which improve export revenues and trade surplus expectations, thereby strengthening the valuation logic for CAD [1] Group 2 - There is a significant divergence in the policy outlook of the Bank of Canada, with major banks holding varied views on interest rate direction; some expect a 50 basis point hike to 2.75% by year-end due to inflation pressures, while others predict a rate cut below 2% to stimulate the economy [2] - The resilience of the USD is attributed to strong economic data from the U.S. and delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts, with initial jobless claims dropping to 198,000 and retail sales rebounding, reinforcing the logic for maintaining restrictive policies [2] - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/CAD is in a high-level consolidation phase, with key resistance at 1.3925-1.3930 and support at 1.3850-1.3860, driven by oil price fluctuations and central bank policy expectations [3]
加元高位震荡修正 油价与央行政策分歧主导博弈
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-20 02:46