长江有色：美指走弱及印尼控供镍价续强 20日镍价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing structural differentiation, with high-purity battery-grade nickel performing strongly due to increasing demand and tightening supply expectations, while traditional nickel usage is constrained by weak demand and high inventory levels [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nickel futures saw a rise of 1.8%, with LME nickel closing at $18,145 per ton, up $320 from the previous trading day, and SHFE nickel closing at 143,640 yuan per ton, up 2,790 yuan [1] - The global liquidity environment and market sentiment are providing foundational support, as the US dollar index's decline reduces pressure on dollar-denominated commodities [1] - Supply concerns are heightened due to recent policy adjustments in the Democratic Republic of Congo and ongoing geopolitical dynamics, which inject uncertainty into the global nickel market [1] Group 2: Supply Side - Indonesia's significant reduction in nickel ore quotas (RKAB) for 2026 is impacting market sentiment, with expectations of tighter supply throughout the year [2] - The rigid increase in Indonesia's domestic trade benchmark mineral price (HPM) is raising smelting costs, forcing companies to pass on these costs through price increases [2] - Nickel ore inventories at major global ports are beginning to decline, reinforcing signals of tightening supply [2] Group 3: Demand Side - The demand landscape is polarized, with the electric vehicle sector driving strong growth and optimistic global sales forecasts boosting demand for high-nickel ternary battery materials [2] - European market policies and domestic companies' export strategies are supporting short-term consumption of battery-grade nickel products, while traditional sectors like stainless steel are facing weaker demand due to macroeconomic factors [2] Group 4: Industry Chain Status - The upward price movement and demand differentiation are leading to varied experiences across the industry chain [3] - Companies controlling mining resources, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines, are the biggest beneficiaries due to resource scarcity premiums [3] - Midstream smelting companies with advanced processes and overseas projects are enjoying substantial profit margins from rising product prices [3] - Downstream processing sectors are experiencing significant internal differentiation, with high-nickel material companies benefiting from favorable conditions, while traditional sectors face cost pressures [3] Group 5: Leading Companies - Major listed companies like Huayou Cobalt are expected to see significant profit growth driven by their Indonesian projects, while companies like Greeenme have doubled their nickel resource product shipments [3] - These leading firms share characteristics such as deep ties to upstream resources, advanced smelting technologies, and continuous capacity expansion, allowing them to benefit from the current structural market conditions [3]