崔东树：国补退坡叠加消费升级 2026中国汽车消费进入高端化周期

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is shifting from a "price war" to a "value competition" as policies encourage technological upgrades and quality consumption, particularly with the implementation of new subsidy policies in 2026 [1][3][12] Policy Changes - The new policies for 2026 will include a shift from universal subsidies to percentage-based subsidies based on vehicle prices, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles priced above 166,700 yuan and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles priced at or above 150,000 yuan [2] - The holding time for scrapped vehicles remains unchanged, while the first registration date for vehicles eligible for scrapping has been relaxed by one year [2] - The number of vehicles eligible for subsidies is expected to decrease, indicating a move away from price-based competition [2] Market Trends - The market is showing a trend of "volume decline and price increase," with the average retail price of passenger cars rising from 151,000 yuan in 2019 to 183,000 yuan in 2023, and expected to stabilize around 184,000 yuan in 2024 [4] - Over 63% of consumers are setting their budget for the next vehicle at 300,000 yuan or more, indicating a shift towards higher-value purchases [4] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly focused on tangible luxury experiences rather than brand prestige, leading to a decline in demand for low-priced "pseudo-luxury" models [5][10] - The emphasis is shifting towards practical features such as comfort, driving assistance, and overall quality, with brands like GAC Toyota responding to these demands by enhancing their product offerings [6][11] Competitive Landscape - Traditional luxury brands are adjusting their strategies to focus on user needs rather than just selling brand prestige, with features like heated and ventilated seats becoming standard [10] - New energy vehicle brands are also learning from traditional automakers, focusing on core functionalities and improving user experience [11] - The automotive industry is entering a new competitive cycle centered on long-term user value, with companies that understand user needs and provide solid experiences likely to succeed [3][12]