洪灝：美联储独立性的黄昏

Group 1 - The traditional financial system is undergoing a "paradigm shift" that surpasses the impact of past business cycles, with the Federal Reserve becoming central to a constitutional crisis in the U.S. by mid-January 2026 [1][5] - The long-term pricing mechanism of the market is shifting away from value-based pricing, as participants increasingly focus on trading for profit, marking the end of the Volcker paradigm where central bank independence was a sacred market anchor [1][5] - The controversy surrounding Powell's office renovation is seen as a pretext for the Trump administration's interference in the Fed's monetary policy independence, highlighting a deeper political and economic struggle in the U.S. [1][5] Group 2 - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair has evolved into a binary choice between two candidates, Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett, with Walsh currently leading the prediction market with a 60% chance of success [2][6] - Walsh represents the "independent hawk" faction of monetary policy, advocating for sound monetary theory and skepticism towards the Fed's bloated balance sheet, while Hassett embodies a more interventionist approach aligned with the Trump administration [2][6] - The Senate Banking Committee, led by institutionalists like Tom Tillis, has signaled intentions to block any nominees perceived as political loyalists, complicating the nomination process [2][6] Group 3 - Hassett's chances of becoming the next Fed Chair have plummeted to 15%, as the market shifts towards Walsh, indicating a preference for stable and sustainable monetary policy over blind monetary stimulus [3][7] - Even if Walsh is nominated, there remains a risk of the Fed becoming a "lame duck" institution if the Senate Banking Committee fails to confirm the next chair due to a tie vote [3][7] - The misconception that the Fed operates independently from the U.S. government is challenged, emphasizing that its independence is actually a form of internal government independence rather than autonomy from the government [3][7]