Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2026-01-20 03:40Core Viewpoint - The fluorochemical industry index has shown a significant increase of 7.76% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.88% [1][2]. Market Performance - The fluorochemical index closed at 5206.63 points, experiencing a slight decline of 0.25% during the week from January 12 to January 16, while still outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.20% and the CSI 300 Index by 0.32% [1][2]. Fluorochemical Market Trends - Fluorspar prices have stabilized, with the market average for 97% wet powder at 3,309 RMB/ton as of January 16, remaining unchanged from the previous week but down 9.65% year-on-year [3]. - The average price for January 2026 is also 3,309 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 4.95% compared to the average price in 2025 [3]. Refrigerant Pricing - As of January 16, various refrigerant prices remained stable, with notable increases for R404 and R507, which saw price rises of 6.52% and 12.90% respectively in the domestic and foreign markets [4]. - Specific prices include R32 at 63,000 RMB/ton (domestic) and 61,200 RMB/ton (foreign), R125 at 48,500 RMB/ton (domestic) and 45,000 RMB/ton (foreign), and R134a at 58,000 RMB/ton (domestic) and 56,000 RMB/ton (foreign) [4]. Market Dynamics - The price increases for R404A and R507 are primarily driven by demand from overseas markets, particularly as A5 countries approach the end of their quota baseline year, leading to a surge in import demand for high GWP refrigerants [5]. - The overall inventory in the industry is at a near two-year low, coupled with production constraints due to quota limitations and high industry concentration, which has led to a general sentiment of reluctance to sell among companies, further supporting price increases [5]. Company Performance Forecasts - Sanmei Co., Ltd. (三美股份) expects a net profit of 1.99 to 2.45 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 155.66% to 176.11% [6]. - Yonghe Co., Ltd. (永和股份) anticipates a net profit of 530 to 630 million RMB for 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 110.87% to 150.66% [7]. Recommended Stocks - Beneficiary stocks include Jinshi Resources (金石资源), Juhua Co., Ltd. (巨化股份), Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Haohua Technology (昊华科技) [9]. - Other beneficiary stocks mentioned are Dongyangguang (东阳光), Yonghe Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang (新宙邦) [9].