LPR持平八个月，降准降息空间仍存

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, marking eight consecutive months of stability, which aligns with market expectations due to policy rate anchoring and banks' funding cost considerations [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The 1-year LPR remains at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous period [1][3]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as a primary reference for pricing [3]. - Major market interest rates, including the 1-year interbank certificates of deposit yield, have remained stable, indicating little change in banks' funding costs [3]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the LPR's stability, there is still room for monetary easing, as indicated by the PBOC's vice governor, who stated that there is potential for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [4]. - The current banking net interest margin is at a historical low, which may limit banks' motivation to lower LPR quotes [3][4]. - Market analysts have differing views on the timing of potential interest rate cuts, with some suggesting that structural rate reductions have already eased some funding costs, while others anticipate that a broader policy rate cut may occur in the second quarter of 2026 [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The economic environment is showing signs of recovery, supported by resilient exports and new policy initiatives, which may reduce the urgency for comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short term [5]. - However, as uncertainties in external trade increase, there is an expectation that the PBOC may open the window for rate cuts to counter potential downward pressures and stimulate domestic demand [5]. - A targeted reduction in the 5-year LPR may be implemented to stabilize the real estate market and significantly lower residential mortgage rates, which is seen as a crucial step to improve market expectations [5].