50万亿存款到期潮来袭，大额存单步入“1%时代”

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in the deposit market for small and medium-sized banks in China, where a price war has subsided, leading to a general decline in interest rates for large time deposits, with some rates dropping below 1% [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Many banks have reduced the interest rates on large time deposits compared to the previous year, with rates for 1-month to 1-year products decreasing by 25 basis points (BP) and 3-year products down by 40 BP to only 1.8% [1]. - The trend of short-term large time deposits is becoming more pronounced, with 68% of the 147 issuance records this year being for products with a duration of 1 year or less [3]. Group 2: Deposit Maturity Pressure - A significant amount of deposits, approximately 50 trillion yuan, will mature in 2026, which is an increase of about 10 trillion yuan from 2025, raising concerns about whether these funds will leave the banking system due to lower interest rates [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Alternatives - There are concerns that declining deposit rates may lead to a substantial outflow of funds to alternative investment products such as wealth management, dividend insurance, or fixed-income funds [4]. - Despite the potential for funds to move, analysts believe that the risk of a large-scale "migration" of deposits is relatively controllable in the short term, as the overall scale of household time deposits is expected to continue growing due to a sluggish real estate market [4]. Group 4: Risk Preferences and Investment Choices - Investors generally prioritize safety and yield when choosing bank time deposits, and the decline in yields on large time deposits forces them to reassess their options between safety and returns [5]. - For risk-averse funds, deposits remain a safe haven, while those seeking higher returns may consider "fixed income+" wealth management products and funds, especially in the context of a slow bull market in stocks [5].