博时基金王祥：黄金在不确定性的对冲需求下延续升势

Group 1: Market Overview - Global geopolitical events continue to escalate, with Trump threatening intervention in Iran and imposing tariffs on European countries, which has led to increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [1][11] - Gold prices reached a historic high of $4,690 per ounce on January 19, driven by market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following a subpoena sent to Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice [1][12] - The geopolitical risks in South America and the Middle East, particularly regarding Venezuela, have contributed to a rise in metal prices, while Trump's threats of tariffs on European nations have further supported gold prices [1][12] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was reported at 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI showed a slight decrease [2][13] - The core inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain sticky into the first half of 2026, influenced by vehicle inflation and rising core service inflation [2][13] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump's preference for Hassett to remain at the National Economic Council has increased market expectations for Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, with nearly 60% of market participants favoring him [3][14] - Walsh is cautious about significant interest rate cuts and advocates for a substantial reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, indicating a potential shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [3][14] Group 4: Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold ETF saw an increase of over 20 tons in holdings last week, indicating renewed interest from trend-following funds after a period of adjustment [1][12] - The annual rebalancing of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is nearing completion, suggesting that market dynamics may stabilize and attract more investment in gold [1][12]