黄金短期仍具上行惯性 但4700美元是多空博弈的“风暴眼”

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged over 1.5% this week, approaching a historical high of $4700 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government is considering reinstating tariffs on European countries, particularly Denmark and Sweden, which oppose the acquisition of Greenland, with tariffs starting at 10% on February 1 and potentially rising to 25% in June [1]. - European nations have rejected the tariff threats, emphasizing that Greenland is "not a negotiable commodity," warning that such actions could lead to trade retaliation and damage U.S.-EU relations [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations has increased demand for gold as a hedge, with the U.S. dollar index falling from 99.4 to around 99.05, indicating a weakening dollar [2]. - The CNN Fear and Greed Index is currently at 62, indicating a "greed" sentiment, but the curve is flattening, suggesting rising hesitation in the market [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - The current trend for gold remains bullish, characterized by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with no clear technical signals indicating an imminent reversal [3]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the overbought zone around 70, showing signs of potential short-term correction, while the MACD histogram indicates a balance between buying and selling pressures [3]. - Key price levels to watch include $4700 as a psychological resistance, with $4538 serving as a support level, and $4333 aligning with the 50-period simple moving average as a critical support point [3].