2026答案秀·思想者春晚| 姚洋：十五五规划中，为什么要把这两项放在首要位置？

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has re-emerged as a central document for defining China's economic direction, emphasizing manufacturing upgrades and technological innovation as key supports for high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Manufacturing Investment - The first priority of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to continue investing in manufacturing to create a more complete industrial system [2][4]. - Manufacturing's contribution to GDP is currently around 25%, with employment in manufacturing accounting for approximately 15%-17% of total non-agricultural employment, both of which are expected to decline [4]. - Investment in manufacturing will focus on improving efficiency and addressing shortcomings, particularly through the application of AI and automation [4]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The second priority is to invest in new productive forces, emphasizing original innovation and technological self-reliance [2][5]. - China's R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 2.7%, which is significantly higher than many comparable countries [5][7]. - Chinese R&D investment is approximately three times that of Japan and has reached about 50%-60% of the U.S. level in nominal terms, with purchasing power parity suggesting it could be as high as 70%-80% [7]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Economic Stability - The "15th Five-Year Plan" acknowledges the need to address insufficient domestic demand, primarily due to declining real estate values and heavy local government debt [15][16]. - Central policies are being implemented to stabilize the real estate market and enhance local government spending, which together account for about 50% of total demand [16]. - Increasing social security, particularly in rural areas, is seen as crucial for boosting domestic demand, as lower-income individuals tend to have a higher marginal propensity to consume [16].