12月一线城市新房成交量大涨

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 real estate market in China is still undergoing adjustments, but positive factors are accumulating, indicating potential recovery in 2026 [1][8]. Price Trends - In December 2025, new and second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% and 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][9]. - The first-tier cities are seen as important indicators of the real estate market, with signs of a potential stop in the price decline [3][10]. - Shanghai showed a relatively better performance, with new home prices rising by 0.2% in December 2025, making it the only first-tier city with an increase [3][10]. Sales Performance - In 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 8.7%, and sales revenue fell by 12.6% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The sales growth rate remains negative, but the decline is less severe than in 2024, indicating some support from both supply and demand sides [1][12]. - By the end of 2025, the total unsold housing area was 76,632 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.0% compared to November [12]. Market Expectations - The policy environment is signaling a clear intention to stabilize market expectations, with measures such as extending the housing tax refund policy and lowering commercial property down payment ratios [1][14]. - Analysts expect that the effects of various favorable policies will further be released in 2026, leading to positive adjustments in real estate indicators [1][14]. - The importance of managing market expectations is emphasized, with calls for maintaining policy strength to avoid market volatility [14].