Metals Focus：预计2026年贵金属板块整体仍具备进一步上行空间

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is expected to perform strongly in 2025, with prices for gold, silver, platinum, and ruthenium reaching historical highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [1] Gold - Gold prices have shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, influenced by rising market risk aversion due to U.S. military actions in Venezuela, with prices reaching approximately $4,500 per ounce, just 1% below the historical high of $4,550 set in December [2] - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations for new highs driven by ongoing uncertainties in U.S. policies and economic health concerns, alongside a supportive environment from continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising fiscal deficits [4] - Institutional investment demand is expected to be a major driver for gold prices, despite a potential increase in supply due to rising recycling and mining output [5] Silver - Silver prices surged by 147% in 2025, marking the best annual performance since 1979, with expectations for further price increases despite potential short-term corrections due to commodity index rebalancing [7] - Strong investment demand, tariff uncertainties, and structural supply-demand gaps are expected to support silver prices, with the possibility of reaching three-digit price levels [7] - The performance of silver relative to gold may improve initially, but a reversal is anticipated mid-2026 as tariff policies clarify and industrial demand adjusts [7] Platinum - Platinum prices increased by 33% in 2025, breaking out of previous trading ranges, with supply constraints from South African floods and increased demand from jewelry manufacturers contributing to price support [10] - The market is expected to remain in a supply-demand deficit for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, although the gap may narrow as supply recovers and industrial demand expands [10] Palladium - Palladium prices rebounded in 2025, with an average increase of 17%, driven by geopolitical risks and the introduction of palladium futures in Guangzhou [11] - The outlook for palladium in the first half of 2026 remains positive, with prices potentially testing $2,000 per ounce, although a correction of 10%-20% may occur later in the year as uncertainties ease [11] Rhodium - Rhodium prices strengthened in 2025, with a 37% year-on-year increase, despite a narrowing supply-demand gap [12] - The outlook for 2026 suggests further price increases, driven by renewed speculative interest and a continued supply-demand imbalance [13] Ruthenium - Ruthenium prices surged by 66% in 2025, supported by strong demand from the electronics sector and its potential to replace iridium in electrolytic applications [14] - The market is expected to remain in a supply-demand deficit for the eighth consecutive year in 2026, with continued investor interest supporting prices [14] Iridium - Iridium prices experienced an 8% decline in 2025 despite ongoing supply shortages, with resilient demand in electrochemical applications offsetting weaknesses in other sectors [16] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a significant narrowing of the supply-demand gap, with potential short-term price strength followed by a gradual decline as market fundamentals stabilize [16]