供应端延续强现实弱预期 锡价维持高位宽幅震荡

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed results, with the main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 381,840.00 yuan/ton and reaching a high of 404,400.00 yuan, reflecting a price increase of 2.26% [1] - The current trend for tin prices is characterized by a strong upward movement, with various institutions providing insights on future price movements. Nanhua Futures indicated that despite negative factors such as declining market sentiment and overvaluation, strong support at the bottom exists, and supply from Myanmar is below expectations, while demand shows no immediate negative feedback, leading to expectations of high volatility in tin prices [2] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures noted a decrease in market trading enthusiasm, with weekly social inventory rising significantly to over 10,000 tons, leading to a retreat of long positions. However, a weak rebound was observed near the 10-day moving average due to concentrated risk release and pressure on the US dollar. The fundamental logic remains largely unchanged, with strong supply realities supporting tin prices, but high prices are causing negative feedback and inventory pressure [2] - Wukuang Futures pointed out a marginal improvement in tin supply and demand, but the ongoing trend of inventory accumulation may continue to pressure prices, compounded by the retreat of speculative funds. The recommendation is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with domestic main contract reference range set between 360,000-400,000 yuan/ton and overseas tin reference range between 46,000-50,000 USD/ton [2]