供需过剩局面暂难以扭转 氧化铝期货上方承压

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the alumina futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 2677.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.69% [1] - In December 2025, China's alumina imports totaled 227,760 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.99% but a significant year-on-year increase of 1390%. The total imports for 2025 are expected to decline by 15.63% compared to 2024 [2] - The export volume of alumina in December 2025 reached 205,860 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 22.56% and a year-on-year increase of 9.32%. The total exports for 2025 are projected to grow by 42.75% compared to 2024 [2] Group 2 - According to Yide Futures, the logic for alumina production cuts is weak, and the oversupply situation is unlikely to change soon. The negative basis is attributed to different leading logic between near and far-month contracts, with a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts [4] - Guoxin Guozheng Futures notes that domestic alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, maintaining high operational capacity and continuous high output, leading to persistent supply pressure. The demand side is weak due to the off-season, with aluminum plants facing inventory accumulation and reduced delivery efficiency [4] - The current market conditions show increased selling pressure from holders as inventory rises, while downstream demand remains limited to essential purchases, resulting in overall poor transaction performance and pressure on alumina prices [4]