减产季叠加刚需支撑 短期内棕榈油期价震荡略强

Market Review - The main palm oil futures contract closed at 8,648 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.35% [1] Fundamental Summary - The U.S. forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is 19.7 million tons, higher than previous estimates and last year's 19.38 million tons [2] - A Reuters survey predicts that the average palm oil price in 2026 will be 4,125 MYR/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55% [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production for 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 2.61% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 is projected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.39% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of the country is 746,100 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous week, up 1.37% [2] - Year-on-year, the inventory has increased by 264,300 tons, a rise of 54.86% from last year's 481,800 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that the decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and increased exports improve supply-demand dynamics, while Indonesia's adjustment of export tax policies boosts demand [4] - The expectation of favorable U.S. biodiesel policies enhances market confidence, with short-term palm oil prices expected to fluctuate slightly stronger amid high inventory and improved supply-demand conditions [4] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures highlights that the U.S. biodiesel policy is gaining traction, which is bullish; however, the MPOB report indicates a slightly higher-than-expected inventory accumulation [4] - January's high-frequency data shows a decline in production and an increase in exports, reducing bearish sentiment for Malaysia [4] - Indonesia's B50 expectations have weakened, with the Energy Minister stating that the implementation of the B50 plan will depend on the price difference between crude oil and CPO [4] - The Indonesian president mentioned the potential confiscation of 4-5 million hectares of plantations this year, and a 2.5% increase in tariffs is expected [4] - The combination of reduced production and strong demand support a short-term bullish outlook, with attention on January's high-frequency data and biodiesel policy developments [4]