东海证券：炼化行业正处于“结构性修复”阶段 建议关注我国民营炼化代表龙头

Core Viewpoint - The report from Donghai Securities indicates that the refining industry is currently in a "structural repair" phase, with leading private refining companies showing low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios compared to the past decade, suggesting potential for significant valuation recovery if return on equity (ROE) improves [1] Group 1: Refining Industry Analysis - The cyclical nature of the petrochemical industry leads to significant performance volatility, making PE ratios often misleading [1] - The report highlights three main conditions for an upward cycle in the petrochemical sector: rising oil prices, supply-side capacity reduction, and demand-side stimulus through monetary easing [1] - The report anticipates that if ROE breaks through its central tendency and enters a new growth phase, there could be a valuation increase of approximately 1-3 times for leading companies [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The government has set a cap on refining capacity at 1 billion tons, effectively ending the expansion cycle, and is implementing "anti-involution" policies to improve industry competition [2] - The "anti-involution" measures include shutting down small capacities, limiting new additions, and guiding industry self-discipline, which are expected to stabilize product prices [2] - The report notes that the price spread for naphtha cracking ethylene has recently dropped to its lowest annual level but is expected to recover, indicating a positive price transmission mechanism in the industry [2] Group 3: Oil Price Outlook - Oil prices are identified as a key variable for cyclical assessment, with expectations for Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between $55 and $75 per barrel in 2026 as global supply and demand recover [3] - The report suggests that a stable oil price environment could lead to improved profitability in the refining sector as the global economy rebounds [3] Group 4: International Perspective - The high energy prices in Europe have led to significant capacity reductions among Western chemical companies, creating a trend of "Western retreat and Eastern advance" in chemical production [4] - Chinese private refining companies are positioned to enhance their market power due to their large asset bases and diversified industrial chains, which support long-term growth [4] - The report expresses optimism regarding the strengthening of China's refining discourse and the potential for asset revaluation opportunities in the current market environment [4]