天气好转提振需求 本周山东汽柴油成交或小幅好转

Core Viewpoint - The oil market experienced fluctuations last week, with limited support due to adverse weather conditions affecting gasoline and diesel demand, leading to inventory digestion as the primary focus [1] Group 1: Gasoline Market - Gasoline production in Shandong reached 511,700 tons for the week ending January 18, reflecting a 1.15% increase week-on-week and an 8.62% increase year-on-year, which slightly increased supply and negatively impacted the gasoline market [2] - The average gasoline sales-to-production ratio in Shandong was 78%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week, indicating that it did not reach the balance line [2] - As of January 18, the average price of 92 gasoline in Shandong was 7,039 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the same period last week [2] Group 2: Diesel Market - Diesel production in Shandong was 1,013,600 tons for the week, showing a week-on-week increase of 2.39% and a year-on-year increase of 15.47%, which also slightly increased supply and negatively impacted the diesel market [5] - The average diesel sales-to-production ratio in Shandong was 84%, up 2 percentage points from the previous week, despite general weak demand [5] - As of January 18, the average price of 0 diesel in Shandong was 5,750 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan per ton from the same period last week [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The oil price is expected to continue experiencing wide fluctuations, with the refined product market potentially improving as weather conditions improve and demand recovers [7] - No new refinery maintenance or startup plans are expected in the coming week, with most refineries operating steadily, and a new refinery is planned to start at the end of January [8] - Following the snow, road conditions are expected to improve, leading to increased activity in residential travel and logistics, which may result in a slight recovery in gasoline and diesel demand [8] - Overall, the gasoline and diesel market prices in Shandong are anticipated to show a trend of initially declining followed by a rise, although the average level may still experience a slight decrease [9]