人民币兑美元升破6.96关口 创32个月新高

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened significantly against the US dollar, reaching a 32-month high in the onshore market and a new high since May 15, 2023, in the offshore market, driven by seasonal demand for currency settlement and expectations of continued appreciation due to internationalization efforts and easing trade tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The onshore yuan against the US dollar broke the 6.96 mark, reaching a peak of 6.9593 [1]. - The offshore yuan peaked at 6.95285, marking the highest level since May 15, 2023 [1]. - The central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was adjusted up by 45 points to 7.0006, the highest since May 18, 2023 [3]. Group 2: Year-to-Date Appreciation - Year-to-date, the onshore yuan has appreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar, while the offshore yuan has appreciated by 0.3% [4]. - Historical data indicates that the yuan typically appreciates by 0.5% and 0.8% in December and January, respectively, with appreciation probabilities of 75% and 67% [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggest that the recent strengthening of the yuan is significantly influenced by seasonal settlement demand, particularly in December and January [4]. - Citigroup economists predict that the yuan will strengthen further due to China's efforts to internationalize the currency and mitigate trade tensions, forecasting a rise to 6.80 against the US dollar in the next 6 to 12 months [4]. - Chief economist Zhao Wei from Shenwan Hongyuan anticipates that the yuan will enter an appreciation phase starting in 2025, potentially appreciating by at least 2-3% annually over the next several years, leading to a total appreciation of over 30% in about a decade [4].