智通财经网·2026-01-20 07:42Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the container shipping industry has not yet passed its worst period, with excess supply and the reopening of the Red Sea route likely leading to EBIT losses in 2026 [1] - Bank of America Securities predicts that the first half of 2026 will be negatively impacted by a significant increase in vessel supply, while the second half will face increasing pressure from the prospects of the Red Sea reopening [1] - The anticipated losses are expected to prompt container shipping companies to reduce shareholder returns in 2026 to preserve cash during the downturn [1] Group 2 - The bank maintains a "underperform" rating on COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), Orient Overseas International (00316), and Evergreen Marine (2603.TW), while holding a "neutral" rating on Japanese shipping companies due to current valuations being above historical lows [1] - There is a need to closely monitor negative news regarding the restoration of the Red Sea route, as well as the risk of further declines in spot freight rates due to easing port congestion and seasonal factors [1]