债市日报：1月20日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery with interbank bond yields declining by approximately 1 basis point, while government bond futures rose across the board, particularly in the long-end segment [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.52% to 111.49, the 10-year contract up by 0.13% to 108.18, the 5-year contract up by 0.09% to 105.875, and the 2-year contract up by 0.05% to 102.444 [2] - Interbank major bond yields slightly decreased, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield down by 0.95 basis points to 1.96%, the 10-year government bond yield down by 1.35 basis points to 1.827%, and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.95 basis points to 2.295% [2] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and awarded amount of 324 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating stability in the pricing basis for January [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities forecasts a GDP growth of 4.5% in Q4 2025, with an annual target of 5%, aligning with market expectations. The central bank's stance is expected to be a key focus for the bond market in 2026 [7] - Dongfang Jincheng notes that the stability of policy rates suggests that the LPR for January is likely to remain unchanged, as major medium to long-term market rates have stabilized [7]