宏源期货：地缘政治风险此起彼伏 或支撑贵金属价格

Macro News - The main focus is on the upcoming oral arguments at the U.S. Supreme Court regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's case, which will be attended by Powell on January 21 [1] - Japan's upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8 is expected to end excessive fiscal tightening [1] - Trump's comments about Greenland indicate a shift in U.S. foreign policy, with threats to impose tariffs on Europe if no agreement is reached [1] Institutional Views - Trump's potential acquisition of Greenland is viewed as a "TACO deal," with European countermeasures seen as largely symbolic [2] - The U.S. is expected to release $600 billion in liquidity in Q1, amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and military deployments in the Middle East [2] - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves, which may support rising precious metal prices, despite mixed U.S. employment data and stable consumer inflation [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates in January, with potential cuts now pushed back to June [2] - The Trump administration's stance towards Fed Chair Powell has softened, and there are currently no new tariffs on key minerals like silver, platinum, and palladium [2]