量质双升、固本强基 国债期货2025年“压舱石”功能持续凸显

Core Viewpoint - The development of the government bond futures market in China has shown significant growth in both volume and quality, reinforcing its role as a stabilizer and price discovery anchor in the bond market, amidst a complex global macroeconomic environment in 2025 [1][2]. Market Performance and Structure - Despite experiencing multiple fluctuations in 2025, the trading activity and depth of the government bond futures market have increased, with average daily positions reaching 636,400 contracts, a 29.46% increase from 2024, and average daily trading volume rising by 41.88% to 324,700 contracts [2]. - The trading volume for 30-year government bond futures reached 125,500 contracts, indicating a strong demand for long-term interest rate risk management tools among institutions [2]. - The correlation between government bond futures and corresponding cash bonds remained above 99%, providing a smooth risk exit for market participants during liquidity adjustments [3]. - Institutional participation in the government bond futures market has solidified, with institutions accounting for approximately 80% of trading and 90% of positions by November 2025, indicating a shift towards mainstream asset-liability management tools [3]. Product Ecosystem and Strategic Alignment - The government bond futures market has expanded its product offerings, covering key maturities from 2 to 30 years, and is expected to further develop options products to meet diverse risk management needs [4]. - The introduction of government bond options is anticipated to fill the gap in domestic interest rate options products, enhancing the ability of institutions to manage tail risks [4]. - The government bond futures market has evolved from merely managing risks to supporting macroeconomic policies and financing for the real economy, with increased government bond issuance in 2025 [4][5]. - The use of government bond futures by underwriters has improved their ability to hedge interest rate risks during the bond issuance process, facilitating smoother issuance of government and local bonds [5]. Impact on Financing Costs and Asset Allocation - The growth of the government bond futures market has indirectly reduced financing costs for the real economy, as institutional investors manage interest rate risks, enhancing liquidity and pricing efficiency in the credit bond market [6]. - Various types of long-term funds are increasingly utilizing government bond futures for asset allocation, transitioning from a risk stabilizer to a core component of asset allocation strategies [6][7]. - Insurance funds are leveraging 30-year government bond futures to extend the overall duration of their asset portfolios, addressing the challenge of duration mismatch between assets and liabilities [7]. - Pension funds are using government bond futures for tactical asset allocation, locking in future bond costs and hedging against equity market volatility [7]. - Public funds are employing diverse strategies with government bond futures, enhancing risk-adjusted returns and managing liquidity effectively [7]. Future Outlook - The government bond futures market is expected to continue evolving, with plans to ensure stable and regulated operations, enhance existing products, and broaden the participant base, thereby playing a crucial role in the development of China's capital market [8].