小摩：HBM进入第四年上升周期，结构性短缺或延续至2028年

Core Insights - The report by JPMorgan highlights the growth trajectory of the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market, which has entered its fourth year of an upward cycle starting in 2023 and is expected to continue until 2027, driven by the surge in demand from AI and high-performance computing (HPC) [1][4] Market Trends - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 79%, increasing from its baseline in 2024 to a peak in 2027, primarily due to rising demand for H200 GPUs and ASIC chips [4] - A structural shortage in HBM is anticipated to persist at least until 2027, potentially extending to 2028, as demand growth significantly outpaces supply growth [8] Pricing and Profitability - The average selling price (ASP) of HBM is expected to maintain an upward trend until 2027, particularly in the high-performance computing sector, with manufacturers holding significant pricing power for high-end products like HBM4 and HBM4E [10] - The report suggests that the pricing structure will help sustain the profitability of leading suppliers, with operating profit margins expected to remain above 60% [18] Competitive Landscape - Samsung Electronics is positioned to gain a higher market share in HBM4 products due to its technological advancements and market strategies, while SK Hynix is seen as a more attractive investment in the mid to long term due to its leading position and profitability potential in HBM4E products [10][14] - The competition in the HBM market is expected to become more complex with the introduction of HBM4 products and the extended lifecycle of HBM3E products [18] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on all HBM manufacturers, particularly Samsung and SK Hynix, as the demand for HBM technology continues to rise with the increasing importance of AI models [10][21] - The upcoming certification results and demand conditions for HBM4 products will be critical factors influencing stock prices in the storage industry in the coming months [21]