2025年GDP增长5% 创金合信基金甘静芸：得益于新动能贡献率的提升 2026年政策预计以结构性支持为主

Core Insights - China's GDP reached 140 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing many institutions' expectations [1][10][11] - The growth is attributed to the rise of new economic drivers, particularly in high-end manufacturing and high-tech sectors, countering the decline of traditional economic sectors [1][11] Economic Structure Transformation - The contribution rates to economic growth in 2025 were 52.0% from final consumption, 15.3% from capital formation, and 32.7% from net exports, indicating a shift from investment-driven growth to a dual-driven model of consumption and exports [2][13] - The reliance on traditional real estate and infrastructure investment is decreasing, while new economic drivers focus more on technology and human capital rather than capital [2][13] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors showing strong growth potential include: - Big Tech, particularly AI, which is expanding across the supply chain [3][14] - High-end manufacturing, including machinery and equipment, which is enhancing China's international competitiveness [3][14] - Resource sectors, benefiting from rising prices and concerns over dollar credit [3][14] - Service consumption, especially in travel and tourism, which is expected to be a focus for boosting domestic demand in 2026 [3][14][15] Export Resilience - In 2025, exports grew by 6.1%, with expectations for continued resilience in 2026 due to strong manufacturing competitiveness and easing trade tensions [5][16] - Key competitive export sectors include: - New energy supply chains (electric vehicles, solar, energy storage) [6][17] - High-end manufacturing (shipbuilding, engineering machinery) [6][17] - Chemicals and new materials, where China holds a leading global position [6][17] - Innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, increasingly entering Western markets [6][17] Liquidity and Policy Outlook - By the end of 2025, the growth rates of social financing (8.3%) and M2 (8.5%) exceeded the economic growth plus CPI target (7%), indicating overall ample liquidity [7][18] - However, the willingness of the private sector to expand credit is weak, suggesting a potential end to the era of abundant liquidity [7][18] - For 2026, monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with fiscal policy continuing to expand but focusing on structural support rather than broad measures [8][19] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset hierarchy for 2026 is stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, with a suggested overweight position in equities [9][20] - Long-term investment focus should include gold, non-ferrous metals, and large-cap value stocks, while also considering growth opportunities in technology and high-demand sectors [9][20]