国盛宏观熊园：“天量”居民存款到期，影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The gradual reduction of deposit rates is leading to a significant maturity of time deposits accumulated by households and enterprises, with a notable increase in the scale of maturing deposits expected in 2026, which will impact asset pricing significantly [1][20]. Group 1: Scale - The estimated scale of maturing medium- and long-term deposits for households and enterprises in 2026 is projected to reach 58.3 trillion, an increase of 5.6 trillion compared to 2025, with household deposits alone expected to reach 37.9 trillion, marking a 4.3 trillion increase and the highest level in five years [9][24]. - The proportion of time deposits in the total deposits of households and enterprises has increased from 65% in 2021 to 73% in 2024, indicating a clear trend towards longer deposit durations [22][30]. Group 2: Timing - The majority of maturing time deposits in 2026 will occur in the first quarter, accounting for 54% of the total, with over 60% of household time deposits maturing in this period [20][31]. - The estimated quarterly distribution of maturing deposits shows that 60.7% of household deposits will mature in the first quarter, highlighting a concentrated timing effect [30][31]. Group 3: Impact - The repricing of maturing time deposits is expected to alleviate pressure on bank interest margins, potentially reducing banks' liability costs by approximately 550 billion and lowering interest rates by 31 basis points [2][31]. - However, the reallocation of maturing deposits may disrupt the stability of bank liabilities, necessitating close monitoring of the restructuring of deposits [15][31]. Group 4: Asset Allocation - The large-scale maturity of household deposits in 2026 is anticipated to bring incremental funds to the equity market, positively impacting stock prices, particularly given the concentration of maturing deposits in the first quarter, which may lead to an unexpected "spring rally" in the market [16][32]. - The actual impact on the bond market remains to be observed, with potential changes in purchasing power and yield spreads depending on the reallocation of funds from deposits [17][33].