张尧浠:避险加关税再起忧虑 黄金增强看涨前景预期

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are driven by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions and potential tariff increases by the U.S. government, maintaining a bullish outlook despite facing resistance near an upward trendline [1][10]. Market Performance - On January 19, gold opened at $4,615.41 per ounce, reached a low of $4,615.08, and peaked at $4,689.23, closing at $4,671.91, marking a gain of $77.84 or 1.69% from the previous close of $4,594.07 [1][10]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $95.16, indicating strong market activity [1][10]. Technical Analysis - The current price is near the upward trendline resistance, suggesting a potential for short-term pullbacks, but support from various short-term moving averages could provide re-entry opportunities for bullish positions [1][10]. - The monthly chart indicates a strong upward movement, with the potential for gold prices to reach between $5,500 and $6,000 if the bullish momentum continues [5][14]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have been supported by the 5-week moving average, with expectations for further upward movement towards the $4,700 mark or higher [7][16]. Fundamental Factors - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair, Bowman, warned of a weakening job market, suggesting readiness for further interest rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar and boost gold demand [5][14]. - Ongoing geopolitical concerns and renewed trade tensions are expected to sustain high demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][14]. Trading Strategy - For January 20, the gold market is expected to face some resistance, with key support levels at $4,650 and $4,630/$4,580, while resistance is noted at $4,700 and $4,725 [8][17]. - The strategy remains focused on low-risk bullish positions, with short positions as a secondary option [12].