邦达亚洲:贸易不确定担忧升温 美元指数小幅收跌

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate in October 2022 [1][6] - The growth is attributed to businesses and economies adapting to the recent easing of U.S. tariff policies and the ongoing investment boom in artificial intelligence, which has boosted asset wealth and productivity expectations [1][6] - IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that global growth remains resilient and that the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 now exceed previous estimates made in October 2024, indicating a recovery from trade and tariff disruptions [1][6] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - Goldman Sachs economists estimate that President Trump's proposed 10% tariff could reduce the Eurozone's GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points, with affected countries experiencing a GDP decline of 0.1% to 0.2% [2][7] - The analysis suggests that Germany would face the largest impact, with a potential GDP drop of about 0.2% under gradual tariff measures, and a possible increase to 0.3% under full tariff implementation [2][7] - The report warns that negative market sentiment or increased financial market volatility could lead to economic impacts exceeding current estimates [2][7] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The U.S. Dollar Index experienced fluctuations, trading around 99.10, influenced by profit-taking and concerns over trade uncertainties stemming from tariff threats [3][8] - The Euro gained ground, recovering above the 1.1600 mark, supported by a weaker dollar and short-covering, despite soft CPI data limiting its upward movement [4][9] - The British Pound also saw a slight increase, trading around 1.3420, buoyed by a weaker dollar and positive economic data from the UK [5][10]