New Bitcoin Buyers Have Lost Money for 2 Months Straight, Data Shows

Core Insights - Bitcoin's newest investors have been experiencing unrealized losses for eight consecutive weeks since November 2024, with short-term holders needing prices to recover above $98,000 to return to profitability [1][2] - The aggregate entry price for recent investors is $98,300, which is a critical threshold for market sentiment, historically indicating a transition from corrective phases to durable uptrends when reclaimed [2] - The $98,000 level is significant due to large option demand around January 30th strikes, which could lead to accelerated upside momentum if breached [3] Market Dynamics - Market makers with short positions on calls at $98,000 and $100,000 may need to buy Bitcoin to maintain delta-neutral hedging, potentially amplifying breakout moves as prices approach these strikes [4] - Bitcoin tested resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, reaching approximately $97,000 before a sharp pullback to $91,800, resulting in $233 million in long liquidations across derivatives markets [4] - Despite volatility, the technical structure remains intact with higher highs and higher lows on daily charts, and approximately $250 million in net long positions were filled near $92,000 during the dip, indicating institutional buyers viewed the pullback as an accumulation opportunity [5] Broader Market Context - The broader crypto market continues to underperform traditional risk assets amid multiple converging headwinds, indicating structural challenges [6]