Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a significant downturn on January 20, with many stocks hitting their daily limit down, marking the end of a month-long rally. The sector's volatility is attributed to a combination of policy changes, clarifications of business relevance, and recent launch failures [1][2][3]. Market Performance - As of January 20, the commercial aerospace sector index (BK0963) fell over 3.2%, with individual stocks like Xice Testing (301306.SZ) and Aerospace Hongtu (688066.SH) dropping more than 11%. A total of 11 stocks hit their daily limit down, while others like Aerospace Huanyu (688523.SH) and Shenglu Communication (002446.SZ) saw declines exceeding 8% [2][3]. - The index has decreased from above 3100 points on January 12 to around 2790 points, ending a rapid rise that began in late November 2025, during which at least 10 stocks doubled in price [2][3]. Factors Influencing Market Changes - The recent market cooling is attributed to multiple factors, including over 20 companies issuing risk warnings or clarifications about their lack of substantial involvement in commercial aerospace. For instance, Aerospace Hongtu stated that its strategic cooperation with a space technology company has not led to any significant business collaboration [3][6]. - The sector faced setbacks with launch failures, including the Long March 3B rocket and the private commercial rocket from Star River Power, which both experienced mission failures [3][4]. Policy and Industry Developments - The previous surge in the sector was driven by favorable policies, such as China's application for 203,000 new satellites, the largest in recent years, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's announcement allowing commercial rocket companies to apply for IPOs under specific standards [4][5]. - Recent developments indicate that several companies with core technology capabilities are in the IPO preparation stage, although many have not yet gone public [6][7]. Financial Challenges - Financial data reveals significant challenges for companies in the sector. For example, Blue Arrow Aerospace reported net losses of 8.21 billion yuan in 2022, 12.16 billion yuan in 2023, and 9.16 billion yuan in 2024, with a total loss exceeding 35 billion yuan over three and a half years [7][8]. - The commercial viability of these companies is hindered by their early-stage development and the high costs associated with rocket technology, which still lag behind international competitors [8]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, long-term prospects for the commercial aerospace sector remain positive, with industry experts suggesting that the current market correction may help identify companies with genuine technological capabilities and commercial potential [9]. - Analysts believe that the sector may experience a recovery similar to the renewable energy market, driven by ongoing policy support and potential improvements in profitability [9].