环球问策| 致同咨询刘波：未来五年国产AI算力芯片行业将实现从“可用”到“好用”的跨越

Core Insights - The rise of domestic AI computing chips represents not only a technological competition but also a significant strategic move towards industrial autonomy and security [1] - The Chinese AI computing chip industry is currently in a critical phase of catching up and breakthrough, transitioning from "engineering usable" to "scalable replaceable" [2] Industry Development - Domestic GPU manufacturers have made significant achievements in chip design, architecture innovation, and performance optimization, with some products meeting mainstream application needs and even surpassing in specific areas [2] - National policies and top-level designs have been pivotal in driving the growth of the domestic GPU market, with ongoing infrastructure development and massive demand for AI applications creating a strong resonance with capital [2][3] Policy Support - The government has provided comprehensive support for domestic chip companies through investment funds, innovative listing standards, and preferential procurement in key industries [3] - The introduction of clear domestic goals has created substantial market access opportunities for domestic GPUs in critical sectors [3] Software Ecosystem - The software ecosystem is crucial for the AI chip industry, serving as a competitive moat and determining whether domestic GPUs can become mainstream [3][4] - A full-stack, self-controllable ecosystem from hardware to applications is essential, with the flexibility of GPU ecosystems being more advantageous than the long-established CPU ecosystems [3][4] Market Dynamics - Domestic GPU companies are challenging Nvidia's pricing through a combination of usable performance and significant price advantages, gradually eroding existing market structures [5] - The automotive sector is identified as a key area for scaling domestic AI computing chips, with increasing demands for real-time processing and high performance [5] Future Outlook - The domestic AI computing chip industry is expected to transition from "usable" to "well usable" over the next five years, focusing on practical application performance, stability, usability, and overall cost-effectiveness [6] - Emerging trends such as embodied intelligence are anticipated to drive new growth in AI computing chip demand, necessitating advancements in performance and latency [6] Strategic Positioning - The domestic AI computing chip sector is on a path of autonomous innovation and steady growth amidst open competition and security demands, with the potential to become globally competitive in key application areas [7]