碳酸锂：踩一脚刹车

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in prices due to delays in the resumption of certain lithium mines in Jiangxi, which significantly impacts the annual balance. Caution is advised regarding "resumption" trades compared to "delayed resumption" trades. Short-term forecasts indicate a continued strong oscillation in lithium prices, supported by the supply-demand structure for the year, although strict trading limits on lithium carbonate futures may reduce the emotional pricing of lithium in the future [3][37]. Lithium Carbonate Prices - The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 24,500 yuan/ton to 158,000 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][43]. - The main contract price for lithium carbonate futures peaked at 174,060 yuan/ton but fell to 146,200 yuan/ton by the end of the week, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.94% [41]. Lithium Supply and Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons to 109,679 tons, with specific inventories for smelters, downstream, and others showing respective changes [39][55]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 70 tons week-on-week to 22,605 tons, with production from spodumene, mica, and salt lake sources showing varied changes [4][51]. Lithium Mining and Costs - The cost of externally purchased spodumene increased by 6,204 yuan/ton to 145,372 yuan/ton, while the cost for externally purchased lithium mica rose by 13,154 yuan/ton to 145,930 yuan/ton [5][56]. - The total available inventory of lithium ore at ports decreased week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [13][47]. Demand and Production Outlook - The production of ternary materials decreased by 418 tons week-on-week to 17,635 tons, with a corresponding decrease in inventory [23][59]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate also saw a decline, with a week-on-week reduction of 68 tons to 87,026 tons [40][63]. - The overall battery production is expected to decrease by 6% in January, with specific forecasts for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries indicating further declines [30][66].