开年LPR继续“按兵不动”，央行货币政策定力原因何在？

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for the eighth consecutive month, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting the stability of monetary policy by the People's Bank of China since May 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the LPR is in line with market expectations, as the policy interest rates have remained stable, indicating no changes in the pricing basis for the LPR [3]. - Major medium to long-term market interest rates, including the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit yield, have also remained stable, reducing the incentive for banks to lower the LPR [3]. Group 2: Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, marking the first time it surpassed 140 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3]. - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, indicating overall stability in employment, while merchandise trade reached new highs with foreign exchange reserves exceeding 3.3 trillion USD [3]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Despite a decline in economic growth in Q4 2025 due to real estate market adjustments and weakened investment and consumption, the employment situation remains stable, and inflation shows signs of recovery [4]. - The macro research team anticipates a GDP growth rebound to approximately 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with monetary policy likely to remain stable in the short term [4]. Group 4: Potential Policy Adjustments - There is a possibility of comprehensive counter-cyclical adjustment policies being implemented in Q2 2026, which may include further interest rate cuts that could lead to a reduction in the LPR [6]. - The focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations that regulatory measures may significantly lower the 5-year LPR to stimulate housing demand and improve market expectations [6].