智通财经网·2026-01-20 09:03Core Viewpoint - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by demand growth and recovery in passenger structure, with price and profitability expected to rise starting in 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - By 2025, the Chinese aviation supply will enter a low growth era, with structural changes in demand being a core issue [1] - From 2023 to 2025, rapid recovery and sustained growth in aviation demand are anticipated, with private demand remaining strong over the past three years, while public and business demand is expected to remain below 2019 levels in 2024-2025 [1] - It is estimated that by 2025, China's civil aviation passenger traffic will grow by 5-6% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [1] Group 2: Pricing and Capacity - By 2025, the passenger load factor in China's civil aviation is expected to reach a historical high, while ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with estimates indicating that domestic ticket prices including fuel will be lower than in 2024 and 2019 [1] - The industry's profitability has not yet recovered, primarily due to the low proportion of public and business demand compared to 2019, leading airlines to prioritize load factors and exchange price for volume to ensure passenger growth and load factor increases [1] Group 3: Spring Festival Travel Insights - During the 2025 Spring Festival travel period, the total cross-regional personnel flow exceeded 9 billion, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 7% [2] - Aviation passenger traffic is estimated to have increased by 7% year-on-year, with domestic traffic growing by 4-5% and international traffic seeing nearly a 30% increase [2] - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to have decreased by approximately 10% year-on-year, influenced by high base numbers and increased high-speed rail services [2] Group 4: 2026 Spring Festival Expectations - The aviation market is entering a traditional off-season, but demand is expected to remain strong for the 2026 Spring Festival travel period, with pre-sales for tickets already starting [3] - The anticipated travel period from February 2 to March 13, 2026, is expected to see significant demand, particularly in southern coastal cities and popular tourist destinations [3] - Airlines are expected to control the increase in flights and capacity, with limited additional flights anticipated during the Spring Festival, benefiting airlines' revenue management [3]