杨德龙：2026年我国经济整体发展态势持续向好

Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP achieved a growth of 5%, meeting the initial target, but quarterly growth rates showed a declining trend: 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively, indicating a reasonable economic operation with some recovery growth [1][7] - The trade surplus reached a historic high of over $1.1 trillion, approaching $1.2 trillion, reflecting strong competitiveness of Chinese export products despite the tariff war [1][7] Domestic Demand - The main issue in domestic demand is insufficient demand, with an annual CPI growth rate of 0% and negative PPI growth, indicating that weak demand has prevented price increases and led to price wars in industrial products [1][7] - Measures such as the "old-for-new" consumption policy have been introduced to boost consumer spending, which is crucial for stabilizing economic growth as consumption has become a more significant driver than investment and exports [1][7] Industrial Performance - Industrial production in 2025 showed some growth, with the total industrial output value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by sectors like 3D printing, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles, which saw production increases of 52.5%, 28%, and 25.1% respectively [2][8] - The manufacturing PMI for December was 50.1, indicating a return to the expansion zone, while profits for large industrial enterprises totaled 66,269 billion yuan, reflecting a low growth rate of 0.1% year-on-year [2][8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with real estate development investment dropping by 17.2%, highlighting the pressure on investment stability due to real estate adjustments [3][9] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to strengthen domestic demand and adapt to the upgrading of demand structures, planning to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [3][9] Future Opportunities - The focus for 2026 includes sectors like robotics, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and controlled nuclear fusion, which are expected to continue to attract attention as technology-driven opportunities grow [4][10] - The digital economy's added value is projected to reach 49 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for about 35% of GDP, indicating significant future market potential [3][10] Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend, with a focus on technology stocks, while caution is advised against speculative behaviors, especially in the context of recent high margin trading balances [5][11] - Brand consumer goods are seen as having stable profitability and growth potential, despite a slowdown in consumption growth, making them attractive for investment [5][11]